*Insert quick-witted gag about GEM delay* Thankfully, this ACTUALLY looks like the week we'll be receiving 'AFL GEM' and all I can say is 'thank god'. Collectors are rightfully becoming impatient with back-to-back delays of Select's premium product, but now armed with tracking numbers, it looks like we're good to go! Shipping day is scheduled for today, which means we could start seeing fresh GEM singles on the secondary market as early as tomorrow. In terms of the future of Buy/Sell/Hold, it's an exciting time for the series as we try to figure out where the value lies amongst the latest inserts. But as was touched upon last week, focusing on being proactive in the market is super critical, especially during a time where tunnel-vision can set in on the 'shiny new thing'. As always, let's dive into how I'm planning to attack Week 1 of Select "AFL GEM Football'!
Even though 'AFL GEM' is an inaugural release, it's unlikely that market behaviour will 'reinvent the wheel' in comparison to previous releases. With that being said, there are some key nuances to be aware of that are applicable to all of Select's hobby releases. The vast majority of stock is going to land in the hands of active participants in the AFL trading card hobby, with almost 50% of the print-run allocated to SCC members alone! This creates a funnel where stock is going to be both consumed and listed at a fast pace. As always, prices will start high due to the lack of 'sold listings', and people wanting to maximise value for their singles. Due to the fact that a significant amount of this product will be opened within the next few days, excess supply will eventually create a downward pressure on prices, creating a 'race to the bottom' type event. I reiterate, nothing new for the trading card scene. Therefore I'll be monitoring from Wednesday onwards, trying to figure out where the “bottom” price lands for a lot of these cards. I still think 'GEM' will be an exceptional release, and I think it will be interesting to see how quickly these buying opportunities emerge, which we can then capitalise on for this series. With cards numbered to 75, 55, 40, and 35, as we've seen previously from the most recent Supremacy release, scarce cards DO dry up. So if cards pop up well below where I expect their true values to lie, I won't be afraid to start pulling the trigger. However, I'm also happy to allow the market to "marinate" for what should be a pretty hectic first couple of days.
Melbourne Lot: Christian Petracca Gold Brownlow Predictor 32/260 Footy Stars 2023, Max Gawn Gold Brownlow Predictor 101/260 Footy Stars 2023, Jack Viney Classified 133/365 Footy Stars 2023, & Melbourne Gold Coleman Predictor 119/260 Footy Stars 2023 - $200
Unless you live under a rock, you would've heard the news that Nick Daicos has suffered a fractured leg, which brings his 2020 'Home & Away' season to a close. When I first heard the news, I knew acting fast in other areas of the market would present some buying opportunities, which brings us to our first purchase for the week. Statistically relishing life without Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca is one of the key contenders set to challenge the task Nick Daicos has set for the rest of the competition. Picked up this lot with 3 additional Footy Stars inserts, which brings the rough value of the Petracca Predictor to $170-180. Hopefully with eyes being pulled away from Daicos' Brownlow credentials, we are able to continue the success we've had on this series with predictor flipping. In saying that, for the sake of the series I don't want to be sitting on any predictor cards come Brownlow night, so trying to move this card sooner rather than later will be the plan of attack.
Melbourne Gold Premiership Predictor 96/260, Footy Stars 2023 - $105
Theme of the past couple of weeks, being proactive. Early in the season I took a punt on a Carlton 'Gold Coleman Predictor'. As I thought the race for that award had reached a lull point which reflected in lowered predictor prices. This same logic I think can now be applied to 'Premiership Predictors', and it's even more relevant now that some key Collingwood players are set to be sidelined for a number of weeks. Like $105 for a card which will either have the safety of a 'double chance' or the price spike associated with a preliminary final. I think for the medium term this card is a good investment. Melbourne have been performing well despite the absences of star players like Clayton Oliver and Bayley Fritsch who are both expected to be available come finals time. This group already understands what it takes to win a flag, and I think they are a real shot at claiming another premiership in 2023.
Luke Jackson Virtuoso 9/60 *JN*, Footy Stars 2023 - $265 : $91.19 Profit, 68% ROI
Jase Burgoyne Gold Draft Pick Signature 48/85, Optimum 2022 - $30 : -$0.82 Loss, -3% ROI
Charlie Curnow Rookie Card 47/240, Select Certified 2016 - $70 : $22.32 Profit, 64% ROI
Jai Newcombe Rising Star Nominee 110/270 - $23.99 : -$0.52 Loss, -3% ROI
Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera Futures 24/95, Optimum 2022 - $20 : -$2.98 Loss, -16% ROI
The area of the last 7 days I'm most pleased about, is finally moving on some cards that have been sitting in our inventory from as early as the first couple of weeks of the series. Even though we ended up taking some slight losses, saying goodbye to some frustrating purchases and welcoming the funds back into the cash balance is a great result. We have now accumulated $806 in profit across the first 10 weeks of the series, with almost $1300 worth of cards still within our inventory. 'AFL GEM' will be the first release Buy/Sell/Hold will experience, and it'll be interesting to see how the influx of new cards will impact our dealings on the series. Hope everyone is able to finally enjoy the new release, it should be a beauty!