This week's edition of Buy/Sell/Hold signifies the first time the series is operating within a new release. I hope everyone has been able to enjoy the latest product, and either been able to hit some PC cards in your boxes, or been able to snap up your desired cards for cheap on the secondary market. In regards to this series, we have been patiently waiting for card prices to reach a level that allows for GEM cards to become viable purchases. However, now only 6 days after boxes first arrived, I don't feel as though the market on some cards have bottomed out as of yet. In saying that, I expect that "deals' ' will begin to reveal themselves the further we get through this week due to factors that will further be explained. We did have some success though in other areas, which was touched on in last week's article, as demand for non-GEM related cards enters a lull period during the impact point of a new release. We also made a controversial decision on a card we picked up last week after further deliberation. What was this card I speak of? Let's get stuck into the last 7 days, and my plans for this series during what is an exciting time for the trading card hobby.
Last week on the Card Authority platform, I pieced together an article around the phenomena of "recency bias" in regards to this seasons Brownlow Medal race. Looking back on events earlier this season, and constructing an approximate data set, I came to the conclusion that collectors tend to favour both the "here and now" alongside potential future results, as opposed to already played out scenarios that aren't at the forefront of people's minds. Even though many of us can't remember the performances of players from games held in Round 3, it doesn't mean they carry less weight or more importantly less significance.
So how is all this relevant to this week's Buy/Sell/Hold? Because just like a lot of people, my knee jerk reaction to the news of Nick Daicos' injury was immediately "his Brownlow campaign is over". I then proceeded to move rapidly before the trading card market was given the chance to react, picking up a 'Premiership Predictors' and a Christian Petracca 'Brownlow Predictor'. My natural instinct was to lean towards the chance of strong future performances and disregard logic as to why Nick Daicos was such a strong Brownlow favourite to begin with. For 60 seconds I thought I was a genius, when it was thought that Christian Petracca had kicked the winning goal in a tightly contested loss against the 'Blues' But as the decision was signaled a behind, I too was signaled that Christian Petracca was now unlikely to poll votes in a game, which now that I've done my fact-checking, he probably needed to. So instead of holding onto hope that Petracca will have a blistering final 2 games to propel him into favoritism, I've decided to move the card on to prevent the likelihood of further bleeding. Could I be throwing away yet another eventual winning predictor? Maybe, but as it currently stands the downside for this series outweighs the probability of Petracca clutching up in his remaining fixtures.
This decision was further fueled by another predictor pickup, which left me in a position with almost HAL:F our starting balance tied up in predictor speculation. That's not a logical use of funds, and not something I'd recommend someone else to do were they to replicate this series. So why would I subject myself to that scenario myself. Spoiler alert, luckily I was able to sell the Petracca predictor for essentially break even, which releases some internal tension, but also allows us much needed funds to attack the current GEM sell-off.
So back to the current day, what should we expect over the coming days? Being able to work for a trading card store during a premium release, it gives a better understanding as to both the importance of the 'break market' but also the sheer volume of cards scheduled to be sent out in the coming days, which I assume will eventually hit the market So with that being said, I expect there to be a big secondary influx of cards listed for those wanting to recoup their break balance or to create some funds for cards from this release they haven't yet acquired. Either way, my eyes will be peeled on both Facebook and eBay over the coming days in preparation. Hopefully this exercise will be more fruitful than the initial 5- day window.
Long 'strategy' section this week but as I've said previously, I feel like documenting and providing explanations on aspects of the series that don't go according to plan, is just as helpful as the little wins. Hopefully this helps you decipher what your plans are with predictors for rest of the year, and into next year when we are presented with a completely blank landscape.
North Melbourne Rising Star Predictor 231/260, Footy Stars 2023 - $230
It's official, Buy/Sell/Hold has featured in every available predictor market. And unlike my thoughts with the Petracca predictor, my confidence in this purchase is growing by the day. If you can remember all the way back to the early rounds of the season, the Rising star race almost did a complete "180", with North Melbourne predictors selling for in excess of $400. From that point on though, Will Ashcroft slowly clawed his way back into contention with ultra-consistent performances, to the point that barring injury he was looking like the eventual winner. However injury struck, and collectors are began scrambling as to which side of the fence the Rising Star panel will land when they vote for this season's winner.
And while I was quick to admit that the impact Ashcroft had during his 19 games shouldn't be ignored, it too is getting increasingly harder to ignore the sheer body of work Harry Sheezel has put together in 2023. The fact that Sheezel has had more total disposals this season than players like Errol Gulden, Tom Liberatore, Connor Rozee, and Jai Newcombe is absolutely baffling. Yes he's played in a side which has allowed him to reach these heights, but can these performances really be disregarded? Personally I'm not too sure either, but once the gloss has faded on 'AFL GEM' and collectors begin to again pay attention to these individual awards, I'm happy to hold the predictor of the player whose efforts will be at the front of mind for speculators, as opposed to a player who wouldn't have featured at AFL level for 10 weeks.
Jason Horne Gold Draft Pick Signature 54/85, Optimum 2022 - $155
I had been eyeing this card off eBay for weeks, and I was getting annoyed by its presence. It was significantly cheaper than the variant we already own and listed. So with that being said, I decided to "double-down" on my Horne-Francis investment and get this card off the market to allow our already owned trading card some clear air. And I was bemused to find that the strategy worked, with us being able to sell our listed card for $215. Happy days. Seeing Port get back on the winners list over the weekend hopefully kicks them back into winning gear for their final two games, and hopefully a Port collector or rookie speculator takes a punt on our second Horne Gold DPS.
Jye Amiss Rookie Parallel 108/115, Optimum 2022 - $12
My favourite investment ‘play’ this season is hands-down Fremantle's young-gun Jye Amiss. Back when Optimum 2022 was released, Amiss cards were selling for dirt cheap, and privately I decided to put the foot down and acquire some of his key rookie cards in bulk. Almost 12 months on, I've been slowly selling off his cards but also purchasing them when they hit certain price points. $12 posted for his rookie parallel numbered to 115 fit the price criteria I'm chasing, which was also aided by the fact there's no other Amiss parallel listed on eBay. Shoutout to the seller as well who follows the series and was happy to sell the card to help the series tick along. But yes, check your Optimum folders for Jye Amiss, as he definitely has decent currency at the moment.
Jason Horne-Francis Copper & Gold Draft Pick Signature Bundle - $335 : $83.51 Profit, 42% ROI
Jesse Motlop Optimum Plus Rookie Card 81/450, Optimum 2022 - $6 : $1.90 Profit (Bundle Deal)
Christian Petracca Gold Brownlow Predictor 32/260, Footy Stars 2023 - $200 : -$.10 Loss, 0% ROI (Bundle Deal)
Another week in the books, and another $100 closer to our original target of $2000. With still some massive cards in our inventory like the Jesse Motlop Supremacy Rookie JN, another JHF Gold DPS,, and both a North Rising Star and Melbourne Premiership Predictor, I'm confident that target will be well within our sights soon! As mentioned at the beginning of the article, I hope we can also find some GEM related deals in the next 7 days, so I can flag what types of cards you should be looking for when trying to resell AFL GEM trading cards. As always, feel free to let me know your thoughts on the series, and maybe even market trends you've been following that might be of benefit to the series. Until then!