The clock is ticking, after this week there's only 2 more articles left to be written in our quest for $2,000 profit in only 18 weeks of buying and selling. I must admit, we didn't make as big a dent into our remaining total as first expected, but we were able to secure sales on some of our bulk lot pickups from the week prior. It was a strange old week, but now with 'Legacy 2023' now firmly in our sights, there'll be plenty to talk about in what will be a manic next fortnight in the AFL trading card hobby. So let's dive right into it, here's how the last 7 days has transpired for the Buy/Sell/Hold series!
STRATEGY.
I'm sure those reading eagerly tuned into the live stream reveal of Select Footy's revival of the Series 2 release, Legacy. It's another loaded release with SEVENTEEN different insert subsets or variations, including some all-time chase cards * Daicos Triple-Sig, cough cough*. Looking back at Optimum last year, there's an extra 4 insert types on Legacy's checklist, so it's fair to say that there'll be quite a bit of cardboard exchanging hands from next Wednesday onwards. Which is an exciting prospect for this series, given that it took us a while for 'AFL GEM Football' to present buying opportunities. How do I plan to attack Legacy?
Just like anything in life, being prepared for different scenarios and ignoring the emotion of release day (which is easier said than done) are constructs that have kept me in throughout this series, and when looking back at my own private dealings during Optimum 2022. Having "buy prices" mapped out for individual subsets or specific players and quickly executing when the moment strikes, is how I believe we can get the most out of the next fortnight. It's no secret that I love Series 2 releases due to the rookie factor, but being in the game for a decent amount of time, and seeing how card prices trend over the space of years, not just weeks. Therefore I'm refusing to let myself get carried away with a draft class that in my opinion has shown significantly less than the rookie crop prior. But at the end of the day, this series was never about long term investing, and more focused on deploying our money in places where immediate returns are a possibility. So while the idea of Platinum Draft Pick Signatures are great, and I'm sure I'll be interested in acquiring them privately, unless they present immediate upside I couldn't really see ourselves getting too caught up in that aspect of the market.
Looking back at how the market responded to Legacy, Select announcing their live stream is often a "death rattle" to the secondary market which unsurprisingly saw a cease fire in both buying and selling across the board. People feel the need to consolidate funds and or cards until further information is known, which from a neutral point of view is probably the correct way to go about things. But from the perspective of this series, we lost 5 days of buying and selling when time is our greatest adversary. I'm still confident however that we have enough cards in our inventory to crack $2,000 profit regardless, but crawling to the finish line isn't how I want this series to finish.
Looking at our inventory however, the Legacy checklist might have created some unexpected value for cards we recently acquired. Select announced the return of Prime Draft, which has historically been a much loved set. It took a minute for it to click in my head, but we were actually able to purchase some Prime Draft inserts from the inaugural 2013 release. Now that Prime Draft has returned, do these cards suddenly become much more valuable for those collectors trying to backdate the whole set? Only time will tell, but I can't imagine that the Prime Draft revival is going to hurt the value of those cards in any way.
Even though our buying this week wasn't as fruitful as weeks prior, we continued to grind out a couple of purchases that follow on market trends discussed previously. And as mentioned above, the selling column received a healthy boost once I struck up the motivation to finally individually list those bulk lots onto eBay.
I say this every week, but it's been great striking deals with people who also read the series on a weekly basis. Hopefully heading into Legacy more opportunities to engage with you all continue to arise, as we all work together to attempt to tick off the final hurdle of the series.
'BUY'S'
Trent Cotchin GEM Base 45/90, 'AFL GEM Football' 2023 - $53
If you told me that GEM Base flipping was going to be our major strategy coming out of Selects most recent premium release, I'd have thought this series would be in dire straits. But studying the market trends and picking off cards that fall within a healthy flipping range, seems to be the easiest way to keep money ticking over off the back of GEM. Collingwood base cards seem to have an endless amount of demand, but big clubs like Richmond have been tracking just as well. In the specific terms of Trent Cotchin, the secondary market is almost completely dry of his 'GEM Base', which could have only been amplified by his recent retirement call. For $53, more than happy to take the punt and try to move this card between the $80-90 range.
Brody Mihocek GEM Base 76/90, 'AFL GEM Football' 2023 - $60
Copy paste much of the market theory explanation above, but it's amazing how HOT these Collingwood inserts are on the secondary market. The Pies could potentially be only a few days away from a Grand Final berth, which could break the proverbial dam walls on Collingwood trading card prices. As mentioned previously, this time of year is absolutely rife with dramatic price spikes, and I could only imagine that this phenomenon will be further heightened by the success of the biggest club/collector base in the land.
'SALES'
Connor Rozee Carbon 191/195, Footy Stars 2023 - $12.99 : $8.66 Profit, 433% ROI
Liam Ryan Carbon 193/195, Footy Stars 2023 - $8.99 : $3.96 Profit, 125% ROI
Ollie Wines Carbon 128/195, Footy Stars 2023 - $9.99 : $6.02 Profit, 301% ROI
Clayton Oliver Carbon 194/195, Footy Stars 2023 - $9.99 : $5.62 Profit, 234% ROI
Melbourne Platinum Coleman Predictor 47/60, Footy Stars 2023 - $29.99 : $21.26 Profit, 886% ROI
Jai Culley Rising Star Nominee 2023, 111/271 - $13 : $6.73 Profit, 212% ROI
Reuben Ginbey Rising Star Nominee 2023, 89/385 - $16 : $9.37 Profit, 295% ROI
Luke Shuey Carbon 65/195, Footy Stars 2023 - $8.99 : $3.96 Profit, 125% ROI
Christian Petracca Carbon 43/195, Footy Stars 2023 - $11 : $6.16 Profit, 257% ROI
'NEAR MISSES'!
Charlie Curnow Franchise Future Signature ($530), Sam Walsh Showstopper ($312)
This eBay seller seriously ran the gauntlet on a Carlton semi-final victory, with both these auction listings scheduled after the Melbourne game. But fortune favors the brave, Carlton wins and these cards probably received an added boost as opposed to them being knocked out of finals. I foolishly thought a buying opportunity was going to present themselves with both these cards. Oh how I was wrong. Not that these prices are over the top by any stretch, but there were definitely multiple other collectors fighting for the title of highest bidder. If Carlton were to beat the Lions this week, I think retrospectively I'll rue the missed opportunity, but in saying that I'm happy to avoid gambling certain outcomes. Especially considering Carlton are headed for the one of the toughest away fixtures in the competition.
'WEEKLY TOTALS'!
As I opened with at the beginning of this week's article, there's only 2 weeks left in the series and we still need to muster together close to $400 above cost price. The good thing about Series 2 releases is that deals can happen extremely quickly, which takes some pressure off of our tight time window. By next week's article, Legacy 2023 will be in full swing and hopefully the write-up will be jam packed with fresh dealings. Until then, I hope everyone reading was able to secure boxes and are able to enjoy what should be an extremely fun product to be a part of. See you next week!