Welcome back to Week 4 of the trading card experiment', where we try to turn a starting cash balance of $1000 into $2000 by the end of the calendar year! First off I'd like to say a huge thanks to those who interact with these posts, and create conversation. I do my best to reply to all your comments to the best of my ability. However if you're trying to replicate this process yourself and find yourself stumped in some way, feel free to message the Card Authority page, or even privately, as I'd be more than happy to help solve your issues and hopefully instill some wisdom (if I have any to offer!).
STRATEGY
Week 4 probably signifies the first moment during the Buy/Sell/Hold process where transactions have stalled! However to already have 3 solid weeks of deals, having a week which isn't full of massive flips is a realistic occurrence. With only a starting budget of $1000, I'm also not going to FORCE deals which aren't necessarily there! I created this series to try to create a replicable framework for those reading, and for patient buyers to go through quieter times is all a part of the journey.
With that being said though, why do I think we had a quieter week? I think there's an unspoken tension throughout the community, where people are waiting for any signs of a new release, and the footy season sort of enters that middle round's lull period! Because of this, I feel like the number of sales posts and listings are taking a hit, which obviously impacts the progress of our transactions! Long story short, there just wasn't a hell of a lot of buying opportunities this past week. But that's okay! This series has started positively, allowing us to recoup a majority of our starting funds, and being able to be more patient with the remaining cards in our possession. However some cards have been in our possession now for almost a full month, and there's definitely room for re-evaluation with certain cards! I don't expect every purchase we make to be in hindsight the right one, but I'm also not in the business of getting bogged down by investments that have gone astray. I'm happy to potentially take some losses given that I trust that we'll be able to recover those losses with future pickups!
'BUY'S'
Carlton Gold Coleman Predictor 115/260, Footy Stars 2023 - $133.50 ($10 eBay code!)
You guessed it.... ANOTHER Predictor purchase! I feel at this point in the season, there could be some buying opportunities with Coleman and Premiership predictors, given that both those races have reached a relative lull A lot is still yet to be determined with plenty of footy to be played, however when I saw this listing of the current Coleman leader, I knew I'd be interested in acquiring it to a certain extent. That extent was obviously $140, which was then buoyed by a $10 eBay promo code! I might have got slightly lucky with the purchase given that Jeremy Cameron was unfortunately concussed during his game last Friday night, also meaning he'll miss this week's game. However in his place, a new contender emerged in Taylor Walker, kicking a MASSIVE 15 goals in 2 games! However there are currently very few Gold Carlton Coleman Predictors on the market, so there's enough 'breathing room' on the card regardless! This card might be a hold until the end of Round 16 or Round 17, as I'm interested in how much of a lead Charlie Curnow can potentially leverage on the rest of the field compared to the likes of Taylor Walker, Jeremy Cameron, even Nick Larkey!
Jai Newcombe Rising Star Nominee 110/270 - $18
Not the first 'Rising Star Nominee' we've picked up during this series, and I think there is merit in cards like these long term for players such as Jai Newcombe who were never given true 'rookie cards'! Ended up paying the going rate for this card when it was first released, and again there's no other versions of it listed on eBay. Newcombe is a popular player at Hawthorn, and I expect this card would be in demand to cover our margins!
'OVERSTAYING THEIR WELCOME'
New segment for the article! Now being almost a full month in, it's time to reflect on some card purchases which haven't turned out as well as expected. It's all a part of the process, and ignoring mistakes may not prevent you from making those mistakes again. So yeah even though $100 flips are cool, you could potentially learn more from a $10 loss!
Beau McCreery Futures 37/95, Optimum 2022 - Bought on 3/6/23 ($21)
Collingwood are still performing strongly and sit 1st on the AFL ladder, however Beau McCreery was omitted from the Pies' starting lineup and was relegated to substitute! Even if McCreery DID kept his spot on the weekend, this card is still definitely overstaying its welcome! I've had 'watchers' on this card all month, no offers, no counter-offers to my offers, nada. Time to get aggressive and try to cash out ASAP
Garrett McDonagh Optimum Rookie Parallel 008/110, Optimum 2022 - Bought on 3/6/23 ($6.20)
I didn't mention this during the time of purchasing this card, but this pickup was sort of a speculation play. I heard rumors that Richmond were potentially going to revive McDonagh's AFL career, due to his strong performances for their VFL side. However the 'Rookie Draft' ended, and Garrett's name wasn't listed in the group of 12 players igniting their footballing dreams. Next time, stay away from delisted players. Pretty simple.
Tim English Black Classified 17/60, Prestige 2021 - Bought on 5/6/23 ($19)
I mentioned it in my description of purchasing this card, and unfortunately my fears were confirmed. The market for Prestige 2022 inserts is pretty bleak viewing, and probably a release I'm going to avoid unless something truly 'too good to be true' pops up. I had one offer at $25, I countered at $30, wish I just took the $25. If that was you, feel free to offer again AHAH.
Gold Coast Platinum Rising Star Predictor 24/60, Footy Stars 2023 - 9/6/23 ($29)
If you are reading this thinking that flipping predictors is 'child's play', remember this purchase. When I picked this card up there was a small ember of hope that Bailey Humphries was a knockout chance to win the Rising Star Award. Fast forward 3 weeks, 2 very average performances and a bye. This was a failed roll of the dice. Here's hoping he can perform well next week so that this wasn't a COMPLETELY failed exercise. But I don't hold much hope, this will be priced to sell!
'SELL'S'
Adam Cerra Franchise Future 33/70, Supremacy 2021 - $30 : $4.18 Profit, 23% ROI
Garrett McDonagh Optimum Rookie Parallel 008/110, Optimum 2022 - $9.50 : $1.27 Loss, -20% ROI
'NEAR MISSES'
Tim Taranto Platinum Brownlow Predictor 23/45, 2019 Footy Stars - $53.50
Honestly hear me out... After last week's result with the Tim Taranto Predictor flip, I was tempted to jump back in the ring with this 2019 Brownlow Predictor. Obviously Taranto wasn't the eventual winner, but you rarely ever see these come to market. Maybe there's a new Taranto PC market developing? Maybe I'm trying to clutch from the jaws of a slow week? C'mon 'eBay Gods,' give me something!
'WEEKLY TOTALS!'
As you can see, we've moved some magnets around on the 'Weekly Totals' graphic, which I think gives a better representation of how we are progressing now we're outside the early stages! I think there was a numerical error with the total 'cards purchased' last week, but that's been all fixed up with all the data now 100% accurate! Big takeaway from the numbers, although our net spend is only $150, we've managed to rollover $870! Which shows that we've been proactive throughout the first month of the challenge. The graphic also shows that the remaining 15 cards in our inventory only owe us a total of $150. So as we've detailed today, we will continue to evaluate cards that are "overstaying their welcome", to ensure we are neither too 'card heavy' or 'cash heavy'!
Let's hope some deals fall our way in the next 7 days, so that this time next week we have some exciting new trading card opportunities to discuss! See you then!
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