Release week "Take 2"! Hopefully this is the week we finally see a new release hit the hands of collectors and the secondary market, which is obviously very exciting, Fingers crossed we see the first batch of singles listed on the market at some point on Thursday (6/7/23) and maybe even make our first 'GEM' purchase of the series! In the meantime, we did have some success both buying and selling cards in our inventory, so let's get into the plan for this series in what will be a hectic couple of weeks (I hope!).
STRATEGY
Disinterested is probably the word that comes to mind when thinking about how the market has behaved the past 7 days. It seemed like all the excitement in the air whilst anticipating a new release evaporated, which hopefully can be repaired by the time 'AFL GEM' is in the hands of collectors. Nevertheless, this 'week of rest' I believe was a catalyst for at least one of our pickups, as staying focused in slow periods is a key part to the success we've been able to manage so far. Making sure we are on top of Facebook threads and eBay auctions on a daily basis, and being active during popular selling times (6:30-8:30 PM, Friday, Sunday, and Monday especially) is one of the ways the series has been able to continue to tick over. For the past couple of weeks though, I've been attempting to conserve money in anticipation for this big avalanche of cards to fall into my lap. In hindsight however, this approach was probably too "reactive", where I was waiting for the deals to come to me as opposed to trying to find the value myself. Of course this can lead to forced transactions if you go too far the other way, but this week I really focused on being proactive, instead of waiting for the value to present itself. Heck, we even made our single biggest monetary purchase to date, which I'm excited to show you all! I hope for the rest of this series I can continue to openly reflect on where things could be improved, as those lessons are probably more valuable than showcasing the "good times" . But anyways, I'm still loving this series and can't wait to show you all how the past 7 days have transpired!
'BUY'S'
Jesse Motlop Supremacy Rookie Green 03/25 *JN*, Supremacy Rookie 2023 - $365
This is comfortably the biggest card we've purchased to date! When this card was placed up for auction, I jokingly placed a starting bid of $400 thinking that some Carlton collector at the dying stages of the auction would outbid me. This didn't happen, which was surprising but given the current market situation was understandable. I think this particular card fell victim to the 'GEM' delays that are impacting many collectors who have significant amounts of money tied up in Selects newest premium release. However these conditions won't last forever, as once collectors begin to list and sell the singles from their boxes, there will once again be some decent liquidity changing hands across the hobby. Either way this card met our two criteria for pickups during this period: desirable, and relevant. The 'Blues' are the talk of the town at the moment, knocking off the top-2 teams in consecutive weeks, with Motlop continuing to impress along this stretch. I have high hopes for this purchase entering the final stages of the season, and while it's a decent chunk of our cash balance tied into one card, I have a feeling that fortune will favor the brave in this scenario. Also shout out to eBay for giving that $400 price tag a haircut a checkout!
Luke Jackson Virtuoso 9/60 *JN*, Footy Stars 2023 - $135
Two pickups, two 'jumper numbers'! One player whose market I'm very on top of is Fremantle's prized new recruit, Luke Jackson. I hold the belief that Luke Jackson is a top-5 young talent in the league, however since departing the Demons last year, Jackson's trading cards have nose-dived in price. And while I can understand the change in sentiment towards Luke Jackson, privately I've been trying to figure out where his trading card value lies moving forward. And I believe this card in particular is the turning point in Luke Jacksons 'card stocks'. Being Jackson's first Fremantle card, with good amounts of scarcity, plus being a jumper-number, is the perfect recipe to flip this card for decent profit. But let me know what you think about Luke Jackson's trading card value in the years to come, if he's able to reach that level of potential he's threatened to reach?
Nick Daicos Rising Star Nominee 117/626 - $33
The return of a card we've already bought and sold on this series. While people still think that the likes of Christian Petracca and Marcus Bontempelli are still an outside chance to snatch this year's Brownlow Medal, I'm ALL IN on Nick Daicos taking home this season's award. If that result actually eventuates, we will once again see an uptick in Nick Daicos cards, so therefore picking up some of his cards in preparation is where the series is heading. As mentioned above, we've already bought and sold another version of this card. However this was during the early stages of the series, where we were more focused on turning over money quickly, as opposed to maximising profit. But with our level of cash balance no longer the top priority, proactively picking up Daicos cards at the right price in the lead up to the Brownlow will be a part of our strategy for the coming weeks.
Nick Daicos Rising Star Winner, 1007/1729, 1326/1729,, 1352/1729 - $79/$26.33 each
Continuing on from our last purchase, we were able to secure these 3x Nick Daicos Rising Star Winner cards for a combined total of $79, or $26.33 a pop! You might be thinking, 'Butters, why are you trying to flip cards numbered to 1700+?'. Which is probably the correct question to ask given our attempts to acquire cards that have low levels of scarcity. However, I think the number of 1729 total cards printed is slightly deceiving in the way of how cards from that total will ever be listed for sale? People purchase cards for different reasons, and while the hobby places decent focus on the financial aspects of trading cards, it can't be denied that people buy cards to keep in their personal collections. So regardless of Nick Daicos potentially winning the Brownlow this year, how many cards in that print run will see the light of day? I could be wrong and we will see a decent amount of this card listed on the market in the coming months, but the factor of people wanting Daicos cards in their collection long term shouldn't be overlooked or swayed by print runs. Thanks again to the buyer for facilitating the easy deal!
'SELL'S'
Adam Cerra Optimum Mirror Signature 44/50, Optimum 2022 - $235 : $80.21 Profit, 67% ROI
Seamus Mitchell Copper Draft Pick Signature 115/170, Optimum 2021 - $31 : $5.45 Loss, -19% ROI
'NEAR MISSES'
Hindsight is a beautiful thing. If you remember back only a few weeks ago, we sold the Carlton Coleman Gold Predictor for $225, which at the time was a great 'Return On Investment'. However 3 BIG Carlton wins later, and this card is now fetching north of $500 on the secondary market! So yes, in the span of a mere few weeks we missed out on an extra $300 profit. When I purchased the card, my plans were to hold it until after Carltons game against the Eagles. But due to the pressure applied by 'Tex' Walker, and the markets disdain for another Carlton Coleman result, I chose to sell out of the predictor whilst the profit margins were still good. Would I have anticipated that Harry McKay would find himself with a season ending injury? No, Did I think that Charlie Curnow would turn into Christ incarnate in his absence? No chance. Would I have sold after the Eagles game for the then going rate of $350-400? Absolutely! So while in hindsight it would've been preferable to stick to the original plan of holding until the conclusion of Round 19, it's just a reminder of how brutal the predictor game can be. Sometimes leaning to the side of caution can save you from heartbreak, but also can cost you $100's in missed profit such as this scenario. A lesson learnt for next time in staying level headed, but also not a situation I'm going to lose sleep over.
'WEEKLY TOTALS!'
While we all still wait for 'AFL GEM' to arrive, it was pleasing to see no delays for the Buy/Sell/Hold series! We were able to pick up some of our biggest cards to date, whilst also being able to cash in on that sweet Carlton hype. We are now under the $500 mark in terms of our available cash balance, so making sure we are properly managing our liquidity levels will continue to be a focus, to ensure we are able to capitalise on future deals. An interesting week lies ahead for the AFL trading card hobby, let's hope 'AFL GEM' is able to reignite the card market, which propels this series in future weeks!
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