We are back again with an update on the Brownlow Predictor race, which has further unfolded 8 rounds into the season! As to be expected, there are a few particular players who seem to be breaking away from the rest of the pack. However we've also witnessed heartbreak, with some pre-season and early round fancies falling into irrelevancy! Unfortunately that's the game with predictors, but let's dive into how the market has reacted to Brownlow predictors during the past 5 rounds!
In case you missed our Round 3 Update, be sure to catch-up as it's been REALLY interesting looking back at how drastically the card landscape can change within a 5-week window! Since Round 3, there have been 10 different players enter and leave our standings, with popular early selections in Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Andrew Brayshaw, and Luke Davies-Uniacke all no longer featuring in the Brownlow picture!
But since the last time we collated data, there's definitely been a massive shift for one potential hopeful. Unless you've been living under a rock, don't have social media, or not up-to-date with Australian pop-culture, Nick Daicos is playing pretty decent footy right now! According to bookmakers, in the last 5 rounds Daicos' winning probability has sky-rocketed from 11% to 36%, which have left his betting odds at $2.75 to win the Brownlow! At this stage of the season those type of probabilities are unheard of. But it's fair to say that his performances on the big-stage warrant the level of demand for his Brownlow markets, which include his Brownlow Predictors!
As you can see from the table above, Daicos' Gold Predictor is now available for $750, but actually the peak value of this card reached a whopping $983 after his amazing ANZAC Day heroics. The consistently high selling prices of the Daicos Gold Predictor has eclipsed any level of extraordinary hype we been exposed too, including early last season hype surrounding Patrick Cripps! We haven't seen a Collingwood Platinum Wildcard hit the market since April 25th, but it would be hard to fathom what price punters would've been willing to pay during that crazy month-long stretch.
But as you've probably pieced together,, the past fortnight has signaled a halting in Daicos Predictor prices as AFL clubs have FINALLY decided they've had enough of #35 running around unopposed! Ben Keays and Dylan Clarke both put in the work required to limit the effectiveness of Daicos, which at an individual level yielded great success! Who knows if it's a tactic teams will continue to implement, as Collingwood are still winning games, but these past 2 rounds has definitely dragged Daicos back to the rest of the chasing pack!
And chasing hard they most certainly are! Marcus Bontempelli has been in arguably career-best form, and while Clayton Oliver isn't creating headlines ala the 'Bont' and Daicos, Melbourne are continuing to win games where his performances aren't going unnoticed. This has created what we believe is a '3-Horse Race' between Nick Daicos, Marcus Bontempelli and Clayton Oliver. An arm-wrestle between fresh exciting generational talent, and equally supreme talents but with known vote-getting ability.
To the best of our ability, we have followed the sales progress of each players 'Gold Brownlow Predictor' on the secondary market at various intervals. Safe to say that there's definitely a hobby favourite emerging, with the peak of Daicos' prices eclipsing Bontempelli and Oliver's peaks 4 times over! Is this an accurate reflection of where their probabilities currently stand? Given the data available to us and current card prices, you could go out and buy both a Marcus Bontempelli and Clayton Oliver Gold Predictor for CHEAPER than a Nick Daicos BP. Simply put, "covering the field" is considerably cheaper than backing the slightly stalling favourite.
If you're a Collingwood master/team collector you're going to acquire the Daicos predictor regardless, but could I recommend spending $750 on his predictor as an investment with the given sample size now available to us? Unfortunately not.
As a speculator myself, you've always got to weigh up the potential upside vs the immediate risk and with predictor speculating that lesson can be harder than learned than others! However, if people are willing to spend $750 at a 36% chance of Daicos winning, then do those people believe there's enough money and interest in the hobby to sustain the winning 'Gold Predictor Booklet' to be MORE than a $2000 card? With Patrick Cripps' win last year, who resides from a similarly massive supporter and collector base, the sheer supply of Gold Predictors limited that particular card from ever consistently surpassing $1000. That being said, Daicos could always be the outlier, as he has been for the entirety of his career, but if the market conditions stay the same could our perception of the situation be greater than its reality?
To finish, I thought I'd mention my favourite Brownlow smoky after 8 rounds! Jeremy Cameron has been is stunning form this season, and now Geelong are finally winning some games, could his dominance in the forward half force him into consideration for the Brownlow? No forward has won the award since Tony Lockett's joint-win in 1987, but you get the feeling that if the award was ever to buck the midfielder trend, it's this year with Jeremy Cameron!
So after 8 rounds of footy are you still with the favourite? Or do you think one of the other talented candidates is slowly whittling away at Daicos' stranglehold on the Brownlow race?