When we look back at the year 2022 in years to come, it’s going to be hard to forget the profound impact Nick Daicos’ rookie season had, both on the AFL and the collecting community. Was it the greatest rookie season ever? Whether you believe so or not, I only pose the question to make something abundantly clear to everyone:
Nick Daicos’ current card prices have him placed as one of the greatest footballers of all time!
Crazy to think that a 19 year old, whose only a mere 25 games into his career, is out-pricing Brownlow Medalists, Premiership Heroes and Hall of Fame inductees. I can’t think of a more hyped Select card in recent memory than the Nick Daicos Platinum Draft-Pick Signature, which already fetches a staggering amount of money. It begs the question, is the price-tag justified? Or is Nick Daicos actually a risky investment?
I’m going to break down BOTH sides of the argument so YOU can decide!
A great comparison for projecting where Nick Daicos card prices COULD trend towards in the coming years, is looking at where Sam Walsh cards prices reached in 2021. A massively hyped player, big team collector base, with his DPS numbered to 175 fetching well over $1000 and his Influential the big chase card of Optimum 2021!
After the initial price boom of Optimum subsided, Nick Daicos Copper Signatures settled around $450, with his Gold Signatures showing completed listings at $650-700. If Daicos continues to find success individually as well as collectively with Collingwood, are those prices then undervalued?
The Copper Signature is an easy comparison to the Dominance DPS given their similar scarcities, but could the Gold Signature really reach the heights of a $2000 card? Potentially, I think the lack of differentiation between the Copper and Gold Signatures might blunt those heights, but that’s what the numbers suggest if you extrapolate a Walsh-like trajectory for Nick Daicos in the next 3-5 years!
Another positive factor for Daicos investors is the enormity of Collingwood’s team collector base. With Daicos obviously being the ‘Magpie Army’s’ poster-boy, whilst also garnering strong neutral collectability, the floor price for Daicos cards is going to remain relatively high. If his card prices were to lower, the amount of new buyers entering the market for his cards would most likely counteract this shift in price.
With Optimum 2022 only a few months old, and the hobby in a downward trend being off-season, Daicos cards are still relatively “attainable” at certain price points. But believe me when I say this, they WILL dry up! Through a mix of ‘hype-cycles’, and a steady influx of new collectors entering the market, it’s easy to forget that some key Daicos rookie cards won’t be abundantly available.
I’ll quickly touch on the Platinum DPS, but it will be explained in greater detail throughout the next section. The positive aspect of investing in the TOP-TIER Daicos rookie card, is the lack of exposure your investment will be subjected to by the rest of the market. This card won’t be exchanged freely like other Daicos rookie cards, and I’d be surprised if any owners are looking to move it on in the near future, IF EVER! A lack of comparative sales will bode well for this particular card moving forward, as well as his Supremacy Rookie /25.
Instead of arguing the point as to why Nick Daicos is a “bad investment”, I think it’s more suitable highlighting the risks involved when potentially spending $1000’s on a single players trading cards. Especially one whose only played senior football for 12 months!
The first risk factor to consider is the ACTUAL demand for Nick Daicos cards in the current market. I think what the latest Optimum release was able to show collectors, was that numbers don’t always make complete sense.
$60 for a card numbered out of 455, only $100 for cards numbered out of 110 & 95, but $350 for his Supremacy Rookie numbered to 75? The values are all over the place! Are Daicos’ Optimum Parallel and Futures insert good value or are the rest overpriced?
I personally think it’s a case of people wanting a slice of the hype without purchasing the whole cake! This theory makes you question though, will there be demand when prices should be going up, or is everyone just happy collecting a memento and moving on?
Our community is obviously still quite small, so will there be the buyers to fill demand around the $200-400 range for his rookie cards and $600-1200 for his Draft-Pick Signatures’?
Another reason why I’ve tried to avoid buying Daicos cards this off-season is due to my past experiences of being burnt when buying at the peak of a players market. It may partially explain why collectors buying habits are somewhat confusing as no one wants to lose ‘half their head’ on a ‘hyped purchase’.
And whilst it looks as though there’s no stopping the Daicos train, AFL is an unforgiving sport at the best of times, and unfortunately injury and dips in form DO happen, which can derail card investments completely. E.g. Sam Walsh potentially missing the first half of 2023 with a back injury! Also, are Collingwood going to successfully back-up their massive 2022?
Their fixture does get considerably harder, is that going to impact Daicos card prices? It would be pretty incredible to NOT see an opportunity to buy a players cards on the dip, even Dustin Martin goes through quieter price periods, but it can’t be questioned that right now the market is inflated!
Lastly, I think the most important aspect of investing your hard-earned into Nick Daicos cards is the flip-side of what you’re NOT investing in! It may have been overshadowed by the #4 Pick, but the 2021 Draft Crop unearthed a few handy players. Jason Horne-Francis, Josh Rachele, Sam Darcy, Ben Hobbs, Josh Ward to only name a few.
All these potential future superstars cards are significantly inexpensive compared to their Daicos counterparts. And don’t get me started on the card prices of elite level talent in the smaller market teams! Put simply, does the opportunity cost of investing in 8-10 high quality players cards outweigh the upside of a singular Nick Daicos purchase? It’s a trade-off only YOU can decide but understanding your level of risk in an investment is crucial.
Things To Consider!
A rapid increase in the number of new collectors in the hobby obviously changes the landscape significantly, but DOES take away some element of risk from investing in Nick Daicos cards.
It’s still uncertain as to how well the 3-tier DPS system or ‘Supremacy Rookies’ will age in years to come. They both seem to be popular additions to the Select calendar so if it continues, price trends will become clearer!
This article really only talks about the buying and selling of Nick Daicos cards. However, investment value can still increase by using your Daicos investment to trade into higher-end cards! At the end of the day, he’s the hottest commodity in cards, and his trade value is VERY desirable.
So what do YOU think? Is Nick Daicos someone you’re still keen picking up? Or do you think better value lies elsewhere?